BP Energy Outlook 2035

BP published its annual Energy Outlook which describes `most likely` trajectory of the global energy system for 2012-1035 year. The outlook raises a question: will the world have sufficient energy to fuel continued economic growth and sustainable development?

According to the document, global energy consumption will increase by 41% by 2035, with 95% of that growth coming from rapidly growing emerging economies. That growth rate is slower from previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency. Shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply.

Industry remains the dominant source of growth from primary energy consumption, which accounts for more than a half of the growth of energy consumption 2012-2035, the next major component of growth in other sectors-residential, service, and agriculture is predominantly in the form of electricity. The transport sector continues to play a relatively small role in primary energy growth (13%).

All fuels show the growth over the forecast period, with the fastest growth in renewables (6.4% per. annum) nuclear (1.9% p.a) and hydro-electric power (1.8% p.a).

Among fossil fuels, gas is the fastest growing (1.9% p.a), oil shows the slowest growth (0.8%), with coal (1.1% p.a) slightly ahead.

World primary energy production growth at 1.5% p.a from 2012 to 2035 matching consumption growth. Growth is concentrated in non-OECD countries.

According to the prognosis, global CO2 emissions from energy use grow by 29 % or 1.1 % p.a. over forecasting period. Policies to curb emissions continue to tighten, and the rate of growth of emissions declines, but emissions remain well above the recommended path. Global emissions in 2035 are nearly double the 1990 level. Emissions growth is due to non-OECD economies.

So, according to the document, energy definitely will be sufficient and available, but security and reliability will be mixed – improving for some, concern for others, and sustainability still needs to be addressed.

The projections show, that shale gas usage is not enough to reduce emissions, a lot of work needs to be done for sustainability of energy development.